Stocks are entering the final week of August on a wave of optimism, thanks to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s surprisingly dovish tone at Jackson Hole. His suggestion that the “shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance” opened the door for a September interest rate cut, sending the Dow Jones to record highs and putting the S&P 500 within striking distance of its own. Futures markets now assign roughly an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut next month, according to CME data, reinforcing a rally that, in many ways, feels like it is leaning on Powell’s words as much as fundamentals. Against this backdrop, Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday have become the focal point, with investors waiting to see if the AI leader can validate the extraordinary gains tech stocks have delivered over the past year. Nvidia is not just another company, it is the bellwether of the AI trade, with its GPUs powering everything from hyperscale data centers to AI research at the biggest firms in the world. Analysts expect second-quarter revenue to top $46 billion, a 54% year-over-year jump, alongside EPS growth of nearly 50%. Options markets are bracing for volatility, implying a 6% move in either direction after results.
As Eric Beiley of Steward Partners noted, “Nvidia is absolutely critical for the broader market because any sign of strength could reignite momentum… the risk is that all this AI investment could be nearing a peak.” That captures the dilemma well: Nvidia has become so central to investor psychology that its numbers might steer more than just its own stock.
The week is not only about Nvidia, though. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—due Friday, could complicate Powell’s carefully balanced message. Economists expect core PCE to rise to 2.9% year-over-year, the fastest since February, showing that tariff-driven price pressures are persisting. If inflation does accelerate, the Fed may find itself forced to tread carefully even while job market concerns rise. To me, this creates a slightly uneasy contradiction: markets are rallying on rate-cut hopes, yet the inflation data could easily undercut that narrative. It feels premature to assume smooth sailing. Meanwhile, corporate earnings from Dell, Best Buy, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar General, and Abercrombie & Fitch will provide important insights into consumer demand, though none carry the market-shifting weight of Nvidia’s report.
The broader question is whether this AI-driven rally is sustainable or merely reflecting concentrated enthusiasm. Nvidia trades at more than 56 times forward earnings, a valuation that requires nearly flawless execution. If results disappoint, or if management’s guidance turns cautious, stocks could quickly lose their footing, especially with indexes already hovering at record highs. On the other hand, another blowout quarter would reinforce the idea that AI spending is still accelerating and justify further gains.
Personally, I think the market is a bit too eager to extrapolate Nvidia’s growth into a permanent trend; while its dominance is undeniable, no company can sustain hypergrowth forever, particularly in such a cyclical sector. Still, for now, Nvidia’s results and Powell’s tone form the twin pillars holding up this market. The coming days will reveal whether that foundation is strong enough to keep the rally intact, or whether cracks are about to show.
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